Friday, November 16, 2018 at 12:00pm to 1:15pm
Mann Library, 102
Cornell University Mann Library, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
Melissa Kearney, Professor, University of Maryland
Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Non-Marital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom
Abstract: There has been a well-documented retreat from marriage among less educated individuals in the U.S. and non-marital childbearing has become the norm among young mothers and mothers with low levels of education. One hypothesis is that the declining economic position of men in these populations is at least partially responsible for these trends. That leads to the reverse hypothesis that an increase in potential earnings of less-educated men would correspondingly lead to an increase in marriage and a reduction in non-marital births. To investigate this possibility, we empirically exploit the positive economic shock associated with localized “fracking booms” throughout the U.S. in recent decades. We confirm that these localized fracking booms led to increased wages for non-college-educated men. A reduced form analysis reveals that in response to local-area fracking production, both marital and non-marital births increase and there is no evidence of an increase in marriage rates. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income effects on births, but no associated increase in marriage. We compare our findings to the family formation response to the Appalachian coal boom experience of the 1970s and 1980s, when it appears that marital births and marriage rates increased, but non-marital births did not. This contrast potentially suggests important interactions between economic forces and social context.
More information about the speaker can be found at: https://www.econ.umd.edu/facultyprofile/Kearney/Melissa
Co-sponsored with Cornell Population Center, Center for the Study of Inequality, Institute for Social Sciences, Institute on Health Economics, Labor Economics, and Dept. of Policy Analysis and Management