Armed militant organizations and affiliated peaceful activist groups often co-exist within dissident movements. Although states tend to identify and repress activists within these movements as fronts for their militant counterparts, there is little research on how activist actions or the repression they face affect support for militant organizations. In this paper, I argue that state repression of peaceful activism boosts support for militant organizations, whilst activist mobilizing propaganda promoting peaceful means diminishes support for them. To test these expectations, I conducted a list experiment in Southeast Turkey, where the militant organization PKK and the activist political party HDP garner significant support. My research design presents sympathizer individuals with treatment videos that vary in the degrees of state repression of activists, and activist mobilizing propaganda. Results demonstrate that the state repression of peaceful activists leads to an immediate increase in support for the militant organization. Conversely, when activists advocate for peaceful mobilization, support for the militant organization diminishes. These findings demonstrate that the immediate attitudinal influence of powerful activist rhetoric is the opposite of what the state justification for its repression rests upon: if activists can convey their calls for peaceful mobilization without state repression, they can diminish support for their militant counterparts.

About the speaker

Ipek Sener studies international relations, conflict and security, great power politics, and quantitative political methodology. Her projects explore the relationship between illegal militant organizations and legal activist organizations within dissident movements, investigating how activist actions influence support for militancy and how militant propaganda can radicalize activists. Another set of projects analyzes how international actors, institutions, and great power competition influence the likelihood and microdynamics of civil war. She uses experimental, quasi-experimental, and observational designs, as well as text-as-data methods in her work. Ipek is a College Fellow at Harvard University, and she earned her Ph.D. in Political Science from Washington University in St. Louis.

Host
Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies