David Titus

Immigration Policies and Human Capital: The Impact on Undocumented College Attendance

Abstract:  I estimate the impact of Universal E-Verify laws on the college attendance of undocumented Hispanics in the United States. I do so by implementing a series of event studies that account for staggered adoption across time, and I use a random forest algorithm as my primary approach for predicting undocumented status. My results indicate that Universal E-Verify laws lower the college attendance of undocumented Hispanics ages 18-24 by about 3.7 percentage points. This is a large effect, as I find that only 15.7 percent of undocumented Hispanics ages 18-24 in treated states were enrolled in college following the passage of the laws. This effect is robust to using logical imputation on non-citizen Hispanics to proxy undocumented immigrants, using a logit model instead of random forest, testing for migration spillover effects to bordering states, and considering potentially confounding impacts of other state-level policies. I explore potential mechanisms by developing a model explaining avenues through which Universal E-Verify can affect college education, and I test this model’s implications. I find suggestive evidence that the effect is driven by a negative labor market shock on undocumented adults ages 25-54, which likely leads to worse schooling for their children and renders college less attainable. These findings reveal that employment restrictions on working-age undocumented adults harm the human capital accumulation of undocumented children.