Cornell University

BEDR Workshop: David Hardisty

Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 11:15am to 12:45pm

Sage Hall, 141
Johnson Graduate School-Management, 106 Sage Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-6201, USA

David Hardisty, University of British Columbia

Documenting and Debiasing the Income Prediction Bias

Abstract: We explore how accurately consumers are able to predict their future income when that income is uncertain, and when they receive regular—even instant—feedback on income earned. A defining characteristic of working in the “gig economy” is that income is variable across weeks and months, which makes it challenging (and important) to predict accurately. We test the hypothesis that consumers facing income uncertainty display an income prediction bias in which they over-predict their income. We find support for this hypothesis across participant samples drawn from three different types of gig employment: rideshare driving, online research participants who complete “human intelligence tasks”, and food delivery. Consumers who work in the gig economy overpredict the number of hours they will be able to work, whereas they accurately predict their hourly wage. Finally, we show that the income prediction bias can be reduced by prompting gig workers to base their income predictions on relevant past experience, consistent with research on the planning fallacy. (no paper available)


We strongly encourage in-person attendance in 141 Sage. However, we recognize that there will be Covid-related reasons why people sometimes cannot attend in-person, and thus a remote attendance option will also be available.

If you are interested in participating remotely in this workshop, please register at:

Note: Registration is limited to the Cornell community

Note: If you have previously registered for the Fall 2022 BEDR Workshop, there is no need to re-register—you will use the same BEDR link for the entire semester.

Note: The BEDR Workshop and the Behavioral Economics Workshop use separate links; hence, you still must register for the BEDR Workshop even if you have already registered for the Behavioral Economics Workshop.

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Event Type

Seminar, Class/ Workshop




economics, EconSeminar, EconBehave, EconBEDR

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Contact Name


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David Hardisty

Speaker Affiliation

University of British Columbia

Open To

Cornell Economics Community (List Serve Members)